The role and place of the intelligence cycle in today’s security environment

The paper summarizes results from the study of the state-of-the-art of the intelligence cycle phases done by NOTIONES WP2 partners working in T2.3 The intelligence cycle.

The analysis of the intelligence cycle, both military and civilian, are considered at the strategic level and its importance at the geostrategic level.

This first part of the paper covers examples of the current practice of the implementation of intelligence cycle in global players like EU and NATO, as well as national experiences from Bulgaria, Italy, France, Spain, Finland and the UK.

The second part of the document contains an analysis of the specifics of the application of distinct phases of the intelligence cycle in four diverse scenarios: (a) Terrorist attack towards one or several EU Member States; (b) Hybrid strategy to destabilize one or several EU Member States; and (c) Mass immigration influx towards the EU borders that affects several EU Member States; (d) Cyber-attack against critical infrastructure.

Besides, the paper presents a brief analysis of some general principles to which intelligence services must adhere in the exercise of its functions, established by the United Nations. These principles also apply to the use of disruptive and emerging technologies and ultimately to the conceptualization and design of those that are under creation.

Finally, the paper also summarizes the derived preliminary recommendations and priorities in relation to the collaboration and discussion among NOTIONES partners to improve the intelligence cycle practices. These recommendations will be used in subsequent WPs of the project to enrich the discussions and raise project impact.

Authors: Yantsislav Yanakiev and Elisav Ivanov, presented at HEMUS – 2022, 2 – 3 June 2022, fair Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Links:

XI International Scientific Conference HEMUS 2022, https://di.mod.bg/hemus2022/program, https://di.mod.bg/hemus2022/program, accessed on 07.11.2022